This is above the expected level of 72%.
The share of non-cash payments in Russia by the end of the current year will reach 73%, said Olga Skorobogatova, First Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia. This was reported by the Prime news agency.
“We have 72% on plan, given that we saw explosive growth in non-cash payments in the third quarter of this year – it was 75%, for the whole year we saw us hit 73%,” the Central Bank’s top-manager told reporters.
The regulator predicts that in 2021 the share of non-cash payments in retail trade will be 72%, in 2022 – up to 73%, and in 2023 – up to 75%.
During the nine months of 2021, the share of non-cash payments in retail turnover amounted to 72.6%, according to the draft “Guidelines for Development of Russian Financial Markets for 2022 and the Periods of 2023 and 2024”. In the same period last year, the figure was 69.4%.
As a reminder, the share of non-cash payments in the Russian Federation reached 75% in the third quarter.
Estimates and projections
The growth in demand for the use of cashless payments, online channels and various digital services was facilitated by the restrictions imposed by the pandemic, the regulator acknowledged in the document. Analysts at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) also said. The consulting firm estimates that in 5 years the volume of non-cash payments in the Russian Federation can reach 95%.
It is noteworthy that the data of the Central Bank differ significantly from the observations of the largest bank in Russia – Sberbank. According to the calculations of financial organizations, the share of domestic non-cash payments at the end of the 3rd quarter of 2021 reached 58.8%. At the same time, the Sberbank team forecasts a growth rate of up to 60% by the end of the year. Previously, Sberbank and Bank of Russia did not have a significant difference in performance.
An even simpler estimate is given by the Russian division of the Visa payment system. The share of non-cash payments when paying for goods and services by the end of 2021 may be around 50% – 3-4% more than last year, Visa’s head in Russia Mikhail Berner said last week. The reason for the difference in rankings is methodological differences, according to Berner. Visa does not account for account-to-account transfers, he said.
It is noteworthy that earlier this year, the head of Visa in Russia predicted an increase in the share of non-cash payments in the country to 90% in three to four years.
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