How Much Can You Earn From Digital Eco…

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24 forecasts for nine issuers

The second edition of the investment review of the largest Russian digital companies, the first – with links. Collects stock price forecasts, key performance indicators and news about issuers.

The sample includes nine representatives of the digital economy, whose securities are available to Russian investors:

Sberbank

Group X5

Tinkoff (TCS Group)

magnet

Yandex.

MTS

Mail.ru Grup group

QIWI

OZONE

Banking ecosystem

Since the beginning of 2021, quotes from the two largest digital banks in Russia have grown by 14% for preferred shares of Sberbank and more than 1.5 times (+ 165%) for TCS Group securities traded on the Moscow Exchange.

Over the past five years, Tinkoff’s earnings per share have grown faster than Sberbank. Neobank’s return on equity is also higher. At the same time, when comparing the company’s prices and profits, Tinkoff looks “more expensive” in terms of financial results than the country’s main bank, nearly four times as much.

Currently, by both Sber and Tinkoff, the price is lower than the price on the respective day forecast. To achieve its goal, Sberu must grow by more than 50% (maximum – by 77% for Goldman Sachs estimates). Tinkoff’s share price would reach the expected value from SberInvestment if it rose by 39%.

Sberbank News

  • In September it was reported that Sberbank plans to sell a 25% stake in VisionLab. This is due to the development of competitors’ products in the “Talk Technology Center”. The buyer is AFK Sistema. In December, Sberbank withdrew from the joint venture MF Technologies, which controls the VK Group. The financial holding sold its 36% stake to Gazprombank for 12.8 billion rubles.

  • O2O Holding, a joint venture between Sberbank and VK Group, received more than 12 billion rubles from the company in the same amount. This joint venture is engaged in developing directions in the transportation and food sector. The money will be used to upgrade technology and hire new employees. During the nine months of 2021, O2O Holding’s losses amounted to nearly 25 billion rubles, which is 28% higher than the same period last year.

  • Sber bought the domain games.ru in October and plans to develop a gaming business within the ecosystem. At the same time, Sber’s partner – VK Group – now receives about a third of the proceeds from gaming activity, according to IFRS reporting for three-quarters of 2021.

  • Sberbank is actively developing the direction of food delivery. In Belarus, he launched the food delivery service “Food!” In Russia, SberMarket has a new dark shop with Metro. There are also plans to create a darkstore with Auchan.

  • Russia’s largest bank launched the advertising market “Sberseller”. It will display offers to buy ads in ecosystem services.

  • At the end of September, Sber talked about creating the SberUnity service. Within the platform, startups will be able to find investors or develop pilots for companies. The platform has listed 69 projects, 38 companies and 37 venture capitalists, as of December 13.

Tinkoff News

  • In November, it became known that TCS Group would receive a full banking license for the Philippines. This is not the only expansion that digital banks are considering. The holding company is in talks with two more countries in Southeast Asia. It is planned to raise $ 200 million, only 20% of the amount will be directed to the development of international markets.

  • The Tinkoff Investments service sees potential in the cryptocurrency market and is eyeing industrial projects. The director of the platform Dmitry Panchenko noted Russia’s interest in cryptocurrencies and, at the same time, difficulties in legislation. So far, representatives are not ready to discuss certain ideas.

  • TCS Group acquires 51% stake in startup Jump.Finance. Now bank customers will be able to automate payments to individuals and entrepreneurs. The largest clients of this service are Gett, Yandex.Taxi and Citymobil, the projected revenue for 2021 is 200 million rubles.

big technology

Since the beginning of the year, Yandex has fallen by 4%, and VK Group – by 44%. At the same time, over the past five years, the first company’s revenue grew faster.

The most optimistic forecast for Yandex is given by VTB Capital, the target is 6,600 rubles, a third more than the current price. The latest prediction from Alfa Investments, to achieve this, the quote must grow by 10%. The company’s total revenue for the third quarter is 52% higher than the same figure last year.

VK Group did not meet market expectations and its price fell. VTB Capital’s forecast is three times higher than the current price, while Alpha Investments’ forecast is almost 2.5 times.

Yandex News

  • Yandex plans to provide cloud services in Germany. For this purpose, $ 30 million has been allocated, according to the plan, the money will be used to rent a data center and purchase equipment.

  • Yandex has launched a service for transferring tips “Yandex.Tips” based on the project “Tip is simple”. Users can transfer money with QR codes, as in many similar projects. Several restaurants have connected to this service.

  • Yandex courier robot may appear in Dubai. As part of a competition from the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority, the company showcased samples of its drones. Currently, courier robots can cover two-thirds of the city. Also, the drone will deliver packages from the Russian Post, but so far only from 27 Moscow branches and within a two-kilometer radius.

  • Yandex was again accused of violating antitrust laws. Earlier in the year, the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) filed a number of claims, now made by the Antimonopoly Regulatory Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC). The essence of the cost is the priority of advertising for their own products and the imposition of additional services for the opportunity to gain access to the “witches”.

VK Group News

  • In late September, VK Group’s MY.GAMES division decided to take over Mambo Games. It cost the company $2 million. During the first six months of operation, the startup received $1.5 million in revenue, and the company’s portfolio includes more than 30 games.

  • O2O Holding, a joint venture between Sber and VK Group, received more than 12 billion rubles from the company in the same amount. This joint venture is engaged in developing directions in the transportation and food sector. The money will be used to upgrade technology and hire new employees. During the nine months of 2021, O2O Holding’s losses amounted to nearly 25 billion rubles, which is 28% higher than the same period last year.

  • In December, the insurance company SOGAZ acquired 45% MF Technologies, a major shareholder of the VK Group, from Megafon. Sberbank sold its 36% stake to Gazprombank, which, in turn, donated a 45% stake as a contribution to the property of Gazprom-Media Holding. Currently, MF Technologies’ shareholding structure is as follows: SOGAZ (45%), Gazprom-Media (45%) and Rostec (10%).

Digital retail

Most importantly since the start of the year, X5 Group’s quotes are down – by 24%. At the same time, according to preliminary reporting data, for the third quarter, the revenue of digital retailers grew 2.5 times over the same period in 2020 and amounted to more than 10 billion rubles. OZONE is down 16%, while Magnet is up 2%.

Forecasts made by Renaissance Capital, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs in November showed growth in OZONE quotes from 61% to 91%. However, currently the price has dropped from 10% to 16% compared to the forecast date.

Of the six estimates for Magnit, the most optimistic was given by Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,200 rubles, 40% higher than current prices. All the latest estimates, issued in November and December this year, exceed 7,800 rubles.

OZONE News

  • In November, it became known that OZON plans to launch an express food delivery service in Moscow by the end of the year and intervene in the competition between Yandex, Sberbank and VK Group. The retailer will ship food, prepared food, non-food items, and homemade goods.

X5 Group News

  • Fintech project “X5 Bank” has launched bank cards for clients. This is a loyalty card and banking product. Options are available to customers of Pyaterochka and Perekrestok, free plastic service. Alfa-Bank is a program partner.

telecommunication

Forecasts for MTS, announced by BCS Global Markets, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Gazprombank, are in the range of 400 – 420 rubles. To reach this value, the quote must grow by 37% – 44%. Since the publication of all forecasts, the share price has declined.

MTS News

  • The court sided with the mobile operator in the dispute with Tinkoff Bank. The crux of the complaint is that SMS notifications to customers are too expensive. As a result, the bank failed to collect 1.1 billion rubles from MTS.

Smart Payment

Since the start of the year, the share price of payment system QIWI has fallen by a fifth. Currently, there is one estimate from VTB Capital, which the company gave back in April. Since then, quotes have lost a quarter of their value, and to reach the goal, they had to grow by almost 90%.

QIWI News

  • The QIWI report for the third quarter revealed that the payment system received 6.2 billion rubles from the sale of shares in the bank Tochka. Initially, the parties agreed on a price below 5 billion rubles, but the price was adjusted based on Tochka’s financial results.

Disclaimer

Estimates are collected for the following analytical firms: Alfa Investments, ATON, VTB Capital, GPB Investments, Renaissance Capital, Sber Investments, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, BCS GM, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Data Sources: InvestIdeas, Tinkoff investment services …

This material is not investment advice. Bloomchain is not responsible for any adverse consequences, including losses, caused by the use of the information contained in this review, or as a result of investment decisions made based on this information.

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